Preview of May 2023 CPI Release

Posted 05/10/2023 cpi April 2023 Odyssey

Preview of May 2023 CPI Release

CPI Tracking: Preview of April CPI Data


Based on the complete data for April 2023, our estimate indicates that the monthly inflation rate for Food at Home has decreased by ~ 18 bps from -0.19% in March to -0.37% in April, pointing to a decline in prices month-over-month. However, it's worth noting that the degree of deceleration was slightly less than what we had anticipated in our earlier mid-month preview.

The decrease in the monthly inflation rate of Food at Home was primarily driven by a sharp deceleration in the Cereals and Bakery category. It's worth noting that this trend was not only reflected in a deceleration in the average net price paid, which can be attributed to higher promotional discounts in April compared to March, but we also observed a deceleration in the gross item prices (excluding promotions).

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~6.7% in Apr 2023, from the pace of 8.4% in Mar.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation (Data as of 2023-05-10)Mar 2023 Actual (Reported)LowerMidpointUpperDirection
Cereals & Bakery Products0.88%(0.37%)(0.17%)0.03%Decel
Dairy & related Products(0.33%)0.17%0.37%0.57%Accel
Fruits & Vegetables(1.55%)(1.37%)(1.17%)(0.97%)Accel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs(1.09%)(1.40%)(1.20%)(1.00%)Decel
Food At Home Component(0.19%)(0.57%)(0.37%)(0.17%)Decel


Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

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