CPI Tracking: Preview of April CPI Data

Insights

Based on the complete data for April 2023, our estimate indicates that the monthly inflation rate for Food at Home has decreased by ~ 18 bps from -0.19% in March to -0.37% in April, pointing to a decline in prices month-over-month. However, it's worth noting that the degree of deceleration was slightly less than what we had anticipated in our earlier mid-month preview.

The decrease in the monthly inflation rate of Food at Home was primarily driven by a sharp deceleration in the Cereals and Bakery category. It's worth noting that this trend was not only reflected in a deceleration in the average net price paid, which can be attributed to higher promotional discounts in April compared to March, but we also observed a deceleration in the gross item prices (excluding promotions).

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~6.7% in Apr 2023, from the pace of 8.4% in Mar.

Subscribe for updates

We‘ll never share your email with anyone else.

Subscribe

CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation (Data as of 2023-05-10)	Mar 2023 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	0.88%	(0.37%)	(0.17%)	0.03%	Decel
Dairy & related Products	(0.33%)	0.17%	0.37%	0.57%	Accel
Fruits & Vegetables	(1.55%)	(1.37%)	(1.17%)	(0.97%)	Accel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	(1.09%)	(1.40%)	(1.20%)	(1.00%)	Decel
Food At Home Component	(0.19%)	(0.57%)	(0.37%)	(0.17%)	Decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Peter Bond on Unsplash.com