Posted 05/10/2023 cpi April 2023 Odyssey
Based on the complete data for April 2023, our estimate indicates that the monthly inflation rate for Food at Home has decreased by ~ 18 bps from -0.19% in March to -0.37% in April, pointing to a decline in prices month-over-month. However, it's worth noting that the degree of deceleration was slightly less than what we had anticipated in our earlier mid-month preview.
The decrease in the monthly inflation rate of Food at Home was primarily driven by a sharp deceleration in the Cereals and Bakery category. It's worth noting that this trend was not only reflected in a deceleration in the average net price paid, which can be attributed to higher promotional discounts in April compared to March, but we also observed a deceleration in the gross item prices (excluding promotions).
On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~6.7% in Apr 2023, from the pace of 8.4% in Mar.
|Monthly Inflation (Data as of 2023-05-10)||Mar 2023 Actual (Reported)||Lower||Midpoint||Upper||Direction|
|Cereals & Bakery Products||0.88%||(0.37%)||(0.17%)||0.03%|
|Dairy & related Products||(0.33%)||0.17%||0.37%||0.57%|
|Fruits & Vegetables||(1.55%)||(1.37%)||(1.17%)||(0.97%)|
|Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs||(1.09%)||(1.40%)||(1.20%)||(1.00%)|
|Food At Home Component||(0.19%)||(0.57%)||(0.37%)||(0.17%)|
Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.
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