CPI Tracking: Preview of March CPI Data

Insights

With the full-month data for March 2023, we now estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation accelerated by ~11 bps, slightly less than what we observed in our earlier mid-month preview.

All major sub-categories registered accelerating monthly inflation rates, especially Fruits and vegetables (rising from 0.06% to 0.58%) and Meats and poultry (increasing from -0.29% to 0.26%).

Compared to our previous note, the acceleration in Meats and poultry proved slightly more modest, as did the accelerations in Cereals and Dairy.

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~9.1% in Mar 2023, from the pace of 10.1% in Feb.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation (Data as of 2023-04-10)	Feb 2023 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	0.42%	0.28%	0.48%	0.68%	Accel
Dairy & related Products	0.08%	(0.02%)	0.18%	0.38%	Accel
Fruits & Vegetables	0.06%	0.38%	0.58%	0.78%	Accel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	(0.29%)	0.06%	0.26%	0.46%	Accel
Food At Home Component	0.35%	0.06%	0.26%	0.46%	Accel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash.com