CPI Tracking: Preview of February CPI Data

Insights

With the full-month data for February 2023, we now estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by ~50 bps, slightly more than what we observed earlier in the month.

We observed sharp decelerations in Cereals and bakery, as well as in Meats and poultry. Compared to our preview note, the deceleration in Meats and poultry was slightly stronger while the acceleration in Fruits and vegetables was slightly weaker.

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~10.1% in Feb 2023, from the pace of 11.3% in Jan.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation (Data as of 2023-03-12)	Jan 2023 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	1.24%	(0.29%)	(0.09%)	0.11%	Decel
Dairy & related Products	0.24%	(0.14%)	0.06%	0.26%	Decel
Fruits & Vegetables	0.54%	0.45%	0.65%	0.85%	Accel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	0.71%	0.04%	0.24%	0.44%	Decel
Food At Home Component	0.78%	0.08%	0.28%	0.48%	Decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Gemma on Unsplash.com