CPI Tracking: Preview of January CPI Data

Insights

With the full-month data for January 2023, we estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation accelerated by ~27 bps, slightly less than what we observed in our early mid-month preview.

We observed accelerations across the board in all major categories. Compared to our early preview note, we observe weaker acceleration in Meats, poultry and eggs.

Our observation was heavily influenced by seasonal promotions that our retail partners implemented near the holidays in December ’22, followed by the recovery in prices in January ’23.

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to continue receding to ~11.08% in January '23, from the pace of 11.8% in December.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2023-02-12)	Dec 2022 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	0.18%	0.02%	0.22%	0.42%	Accel
Dairy & related Products	0.03%	(0.10%)	0.10%	0.30%	Accel
Fruits & Vegetables	(0.09%)	(0.15%)	0.05%	0.25%	Accel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	0.32%	0.28%	0.48%	0.68%	Accel
Food At Home Component	0.27%	0.34%	0.54%	0.74%	Accel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash.com