Preview: $FLO FQ4 - Slowing Organic Sales Growth

Using our updated Odyssey2 panel, our data science team has analyzed 2022 FQ4 sales of $FLO brands to arrive at a preview of Flowers Foods upcoming earnings call.

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Commentary

DecaData’s data panel shows mild deceleration of ~20 bps in the pace of Organic Sales YoY for FLO, for 2022 FQ4 as compared to FQ3. We observe ~15 bps acceleration in Pricing YoY, which was more than offset by ~35 bps deceleration in Volume YoY.

We observe from our POS data that the slowdown in volume continued to persist during January, while the pace of Pricing YoY has moderated further. This suggests overall continuing deceleration Organic Sales YoY.

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Forecast Data

FLO only reports a single operating segment. We are forecasting strong acceleration in organic sales year-on-year, driven strong acceleration of Volume YoY despite a small deceleration in Pricing YoY.

Ticker FLO

Segment	Metric	Actual 2022 FQ3	ODY 22FQ4 Lower Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Midpoint Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Upper Est.	Direction
Consolidated	Organic sales YoY	12.7%	12.3%	12.5%	12.7%	Decel
Consolidated	Pricing YoY	17.8%	17.75%	17.95%	18.15%	Accel
Consolidated	Volume YoY	(5.1%)	(5.65%)	(5.45%)	(5.25%)	Decel

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Flowers Foods Consolidated Organic Sales Chart