Posted 2/01/2023 Post Foods Odyssey Earnings
Using our updated Odyssey2 panel, our data science team has analyzed 2023 FQ1 sales of $POST brands to arrive at a preview of Post Food's upcoming earnings call.
DecaData’s data panel showed a significant acceleration of ~370 bps in Organic Sales YoY for Post Holdings’ Consumer Brands segment, for 2023 FQ1 as compared to 2022 FQ4. We observed a mild deceleration of ~50 bps in Pricing YoY, which was more than offset by a resurgence in the pace of Volume YoY by ~420 bps.
The performance of Volume YoY appeared very strong during the holiday season, with only a slight cutback in the pace of Pricing YoY. During the month-to-date Jan 2023, Volume YoY has continued to maintain its strength while Pricing YoY has decelerated slightly further.
Odyssey 2 data best lends itself to measuring and modeling POST Consumer Brands segment. We are forecasting strong acceleration in organic sales year-on-year, driven strong acceleration of Volume YoY despite a small deceleration in Pricing YoY.
|Segment||Metric||Actual 2022 FQ4||ODY 23FQ1 Lower Est.||ODY 23FQ1 Midpoint Est.||ODY 23FQ1 Upper Est.||Direction|
|Consumer Brands||Organic sales YoY||12.6%||15.8%||16.3%||16.8%|
|Consumer Brands||Pricing YoY||10.5%||9.5%||10.0%||10.5%|
|Consumer Brands||Volume YoY||2.1%||5.8%||6.3%||6.8%|
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