Preview: $MDLZ FQ4 Estimates - Modest Organic Sales Growth

Using our updated Odyssey2 panel, our data science team has analyzed 2022 FQ4 sales of $MDLZ brands to arrive at a preview of Mondelez's upcoming earnings call. It's was a close call as to whether we push this note out since we weren't observing a strong signal this quarter.

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Commentary

DecaData’s data panel showed mild acceleration ~60 bps in Organic Sales YoY for MDLZ North America segment, for 2022 FQ4 as compared to FQ3. We observed ~50 bps acceleration in Pricing YoY, which is a continuation of the prior trend in pricing, as well as a mild ~10 bps improvement in the pace of Volume YoY.

While relatively flat versus FQ3, the performance of Volume YoY in FQ4 appeared solid given the slow but steady acceleration in Pricing YoY. We observed that pricing has continued its upwards move over Jan 2023. However, over this month, volume has suffered more substantially with a deceleration of almost 100 bps month-to-date, which might negatively impact MDLZ’s forward guidance for FY 2023.

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Forecast Data

​​Odyssey 2 data best lends itself to measuring and modeling MDLZ North America segment. We are forecasting slight accel in organic sales year-on-year, driven strong accel of Pricing YoY despite a small accel in Volume YoY.

Ticker MDLZ

Segment	Metric	Actual 2022 FQ3	ODY 22FQ4 Lower Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Midpoint Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Upper Est.	Direction
North America	Organic sales YoY	12.0%	12.1%	12.6%	13.1%	Accel
North America	Pricing YoY	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.6%	Accel
North America	Volume YoY	(2.0%)	(1.0%)	(0.5%)	0.0%	Accel

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Mondelez North America Segment Organic Sales Chart