Preview: $KMB FQ4 Estimates - Modest Organic Sales Growth

Using our updated Odyssey2 panel, our data science team has analyzed 2022 FQ4 sales of $KMB brands to arrive at a preview of Kimberly Clark's upcoming earnings call.

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Commentary

DecaData’s data panel showed acceleration of ~80 bps in Organic Sales YoY for KMB Consumer Tissue North America, for 2022 FQ4 as compared to 2022 FQ3. We observed ~60 bps improvement in the pace of Volume YoY, even as Pricing YoY appeared to have also accelerated by ~20 bps.

The partial recovery in volume was encouraging given that Pricing YoY appeared to hold steady at an elevated level. This suggests the potential for KMB to report close to the high end of its guidance for Organic Sales YoY.

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Forecast Data

​​Odyssey 2 data best lends itself to measuring and modeling KMB’s Consumer Tissue North America segment. We are forecasting slight accel in organic sales year-on-year, driven strong accel of Volume YoY despite a moderate accel in Pricing YoY.

Ticker KMB

Segment	Metric	Actual 2022 FQ3	ODY 22FQ4 Lower Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Midpoint Est.	ODY 22FQ4 Upper Est.	Direction
Consumer Tissue North America	Organic sales YoY	5.0%	4.6%	5.8%	7.0%	Accel
Consumer Tissue North America	Pricing YoY	7.0%	6.2%	7.2%	8.2%	Accel
Consumer Tissue North America	Volume YoY	(2.0%)	(2.5%)	(1.5%)	(0.5%)	Accel

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Consumer Tissue North America Segment Organic Sales Chart