Posted 01/10/2023 cpi December 2022 Odyssey
We expect that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by ~16 bps compared to Nov.
We observed decelerations across the board in all major categories. Compared to our early preview note, we observe stronger decelerations in Dairy products and notably in Fruits and vegetables.
Our observation of subdued pricing was significantly driven by large seasonal promotions that our retail partners executed near the holidays in December. The seasonal adjustment for the reported CPI might introduce additional tracking error to our forecast.
On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede slightly to ~11.9% in December 2022, from the pace of 12.0% in November.
|Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2023-01-01)||Nov 2022 Actual (Reported)||Lower||Midpoint||Upper||Direction|
|Cereals & Bakery Products||1.10%||0.80%||1.00%||1.20%|
|Dairy & related Products||1.00%||0.45%||0.65%||0.85%|
|Fruits & Vegetables||1.44%||0.64%||0.84%||1.04%|
|Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs||(0.21%)||(0.56%)||(0.36%)||(0.16%)|
|Food At Home Component||0.49%||0.13%||0.33%||0.53%|
Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.
Image Credit: Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash.com