Preview of December 2022 CPI Release

Posted 12/09/2022 cpi November 2022 Odyssey

Preview of December 2022 CPI Release

CPI Tracking: Preview of November 2022 release

Insights

With the full-month data for November, we now estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by a wider margin than what we observed in our early preview. We now expect that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by ~18 bps compared to Oct.

Compared to our early preview note, we observe stronger decelerations in most major sub-categories, notably in Fruits and vegetables. This was partially offset by an acceleration in Cereals products, albeit at a smaller magnitude than our previous estimate.

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede to ~11.7% in Nov 2022, from the pace of 12.4% in Oct.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-12-01)Oct 2022 Actual (Reported)LowerMidpointUpperDirection
Cereals & Bakery Products0.79%0.63%0.83%1.03%accel
Dairy & related Products(0.06%)(0.32%)(0.12%)0.08%decel
Fruits & Vegetables(0.87%)(1.15%)(0.95%)(0.75%)decel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs0.61%0.4`%0.51%0.71%decel
Food At Home Component0.40%0.02%0.22%0.42%decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

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