Posted 12/09/2022 cpi November 2022 Odyssey
With the full-month data for November, we now estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by a wider margin than what we observed in our early preview. We now expect that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by ~18 bps compared to Oct.
Compared to our early preview note, we observe stronger decelerations in most major sub-categories, notably in Fruits and vegetables. This was partially offset by an acceleration in Cereals products, albeit at a smaller magnitude than our previous estimate.
On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede to ~11.7% in Nov 2022, from the pace of 12.4% in Oct.
|Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-12-01)||Oct 2022 Actual (Reported)||Lower||Midpoint||Upper||Direction|
|Cereals & Bakery Products||0.79%||0.63%||0.83%||1.03%|
|Dairy & related Products||(0.06%)||(0.32%)||(0.12%)||0.08%|
|Fruits & Vegetables||(0.87%)||(1.15%)||(0.95%)||(0.75%)|
|Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs||0.61%||0.4`%||0.51%||0.71%|
|Food At Home Component||0.40%||0.02%||0.22%||0.42%|
Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.
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