CPI Model Performance

Posted 11/27/2022 CPI Model Evaluation Odyssey

CPI Model Performance

CPI Model Performance: Nov. 2022

Insights

Since March 2022, our published estimates for the Food-At-Home component of the BLS' reported CPI figures have been right 87.5% of the time. The correlation coefficient is 0.88 and our estimates have a root mean square error of 20 bps.

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CPI Results March - October 2022

MonthActual ReportedODY LowODY MidpointODY HighActual DirectionODY Est DirectionAccurate
March 20221.45%1.20%1.45%1.70%AccelAccelTRUE
April 20221.05%1.25%1.45%1.65%DecelAccelFALSE
May 20221.44%1.30%1.50%1.70%AccelAccelTRUE
June 20221.02%0.90%1.00%1.10%DecelDecelTRUE
July 20221.34%1.08%1.23%1.37%DecelDecelTRUE
Aug. 20220.75%0.80%1.00%1.20%DecelDecelTRUE
Sept. 20220.69%0.40%0.60%0.80%DecelDecelTRUE
Oct. 20220.40%0.45%0.65%0.85%DecelDecelTRUE

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