Posted 11/09/2022 cpi October 2022 Odyssey
We observe notable decelerations in Fruits and vegetables, as well as in Sugar and sweets. This was partially offset by a notable acceleration in Dairy products. In contrast to our early preview (where we thought Cereals and bakery decelerated), we now observe that this sub-category stayed relatively flat compared to September.
On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede slightly to ~12.7% in Oct 2022, from the pace of 12.9% in Sept.
|Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-10-31)||Sep 2022 Actual (Reported)||Lower||Midpoint||Upper||Direction|
|Cereals & Bakery Products||0.93%||0.7%||0.9%||1.1%|
|Dairy & related Products||0.27%||0.7%||0.9%||1.1%|
|Fruits & Vegetables||1.59%||0.3%||0.5%||0.7%|
|Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs||0.38%||0.4%||0.5%||0.6%|
|Sugar & Sweets||1.77%||0.8%||1.0%||1.2%|
|Food At Home Component||0.69%||0.45%||0.65%||0.85%|
Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.
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