CPI Tracking: Preview of November 2022 release

Insights

We observe notable decelerations in Fruits and vegetables, as well as in Sugar and sweets. This was partially offset by a notable acceleration in Dairy products. In contrast to our early preview (where we thought Cereals and bakery decelerated), we now observe that this sub-category stayed relatively flat compared to September.

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On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede slightly to ~12.7% in Oct 2022, from the pace of 12.9% in Sept.

CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-10-31)	Sep 2022 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	0.93%	0.7%	0.9%	1.1%	flat
Dairy & related Products	0.27%	0.7%	0.9%	1.1%	accel
Fruits & Vegetables	1.59%	0.3%	0.5%	0.7%	decel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	0.38%	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	accel
Sugar & Sweets	1.77%	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	decel
Food At Home Component	0.69%	0.45%	0.65%	0.85%	decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Daria Volkova on Unsplash.com