Preview of November 2022 CPI Release

Posted 11/09/2022 cpi October 2022 Odyssey

Preview of November 2022 CPI Release

CPI Tracking: Preview of November 2022 release

Insights

We observe notable decelerations in Fruits and vegetables, as well as in Sugar and sweets. This was partially offset by a notable acceleration in Dairy products. In contrast to our early preview (where we thought Cereals and bakery decelerated), we now observe that this sub-category stayed relatively flat compared to September.

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On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede slightly to ~12.7% in Oct 2022, from the pace of 12.9% in Sept.

CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-10-31)Sep 2022 Actual (Reported)LowerMidpointUpperDirection
Cereals & Bakery Products0.93%0.7%0.9%1.1%flat
Dairy & related Products0.27%0.7%0.9%1.1%accel
Fruits & Vegetables1.59%0.3%0.5%0.7%decel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs0.38%0.4%0.5%0.6%accel
Sugar & Sweets1.77%0.8%1.0%1.2%decel
Food At Home Component0.69%0.45%0.65%0.85%decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

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