Posted 10/12/2022 CPI Odyssey
Our analysis using Odyssey full-month data as of 30-Sep-2022 still indicated overall continuing deceleration in Food at Home monthly inflation in Sept ’22, but the decel’s magnitude is slightly less than we estimated in our early preview note. We see ~15bps decel in Food at Home monthly inflation (instead of ~20bps as in our early preview note). We now see monthly inflation for Cereals and bakery as almost flat in Sept compared to its pace in Aug (this is a revision of our earlier estimate of a decel near ~22bps for the category).
Comparing Sept to Aug, we see flat or decelerating trends broadly in most categories. The exception was a slight pick-up in Fruits and vegetables, which was more than offset by the deceleration in Sugar and sweets. This is the second consecutive month of observing broad flatness/decelerations in the data. However, we expect that the pace of deceleration has slowed down compared to that in Aug.
On a YoY basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede to ~12.8% in Sept 2022, from the pace of 13.5% in August.
|Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-09-30)||Aug 2022 Actual (Reported)||Lower||Midpoint||Upper||Direction|
|Cereals & Bakery Products||1.22%||1.0%||1.2%||1.4%|
|Dairy & related Products||0.34%||0.1%||0.3%||0.5%|
|Fruits & Vegetables||0.51%||0.4%||0.6%||0.8%|
|Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs||0.52%||0.4%||0.5%||0.6%|
|Sugar & Sweets||1.51%||1.0%||1.2%||1.4%|
|Food At Home Component||0.75%||0.4%||0.6%||0.8%|
Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.
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