Preview July 22 CPI Release: Food At Home Inflation Slows (June Data)

Our data science team just completed its analysis of Odyssey 2 Point-of-Sale data for June 2022. Ahead of the BLS CPI release on July 11 we have pulled together a preview based on our findings.

Preview

On a MoM basis, our analysis of daily pricing data suggests Food at Home monthly inflation in June ’22 decelerating to between 0.9-1.1%, down from 1.44% in May. This was driven by relatively broad decelerations across multiple categories, including Cereals and bakery (down from 1.5% to ~1.0%), Dairy products (down from 2.9% to ~1.6%), Fruits and vegetables (from 0.6% to ~0.1%), and Meats and poultry (from 1.14% to ~0.3%). The only noticeable acceleration observed was in Sugar and sweets (from 0.6% to ~1.2%).

On an annual basis, because of the base effect from last year, we estimate Food at Home's annual inflation will continue accelerating to between 12.1% - 12.3% in June '22, from the pace of 11.9% in May.

Category Inflation Trends

The only noticeable acceleration observed was in Sugar and sweets (from 0.6% to ~1.2%), other categories experience deceleration.

Odyssey2 CPI Component Estimate	MoM Inflation
Cereals and bakery products	~1.0%
Dairy and related products	~1.6%
Fruits and vegetables	~0.1%
Meats and poultry	~0.3%
Sugar and sweets	~1.2%
Food at home	0.9 - 1.1%