CPI Model Performance: Nov. 2022

Insights

Since March 2022, our published estimates for the Food-At-Home component of the BLS' reported CPI figures have been right 87.5% of the time. The correlation coefficient is 0.88 and our estimates have a root mean square error of 20 bps.

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CPI Results March - October 2022

Month	Actual Reported	ODY Low	ODY Midpoint	ODY High	Actual Direction	ODY Est Direction	Accurate
March 2022	1.45%	1.20%	1.45%	1.70%	Accel	Accel	TRUE
April 2022	1.05%	1.25%	1.45%	1.65%	Decel	Accel	FALSE
May 2022	1.44%	1.30%	1.50%	1.70%	Accel	Accel	TRUE
June 2022	1.02%	0.90%	1.00%	1.10%	Decel	Decel	TRUE
July 2022	1.34%	1.08%	1.23%	1.37%	Decel	Decel	TRUE
Aug. 2022	0.75%	0.80%	1.00%	1.20%	Decel	Decel	TRUE
Sept. 2022	0.69%	0.40%	0.60%	0.80%	Decel	Decel	TRUE
Oct. 2022	0.40%	0.45%	0.65%	0.85%	Decel	Decel	TRUE